Could a tobacco-free generation reduce the number of deaths from lung cancer?

Background

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide. Tobacco smoking is the leading risk factor for the disease. Tobacco control is a public health priority, and many countries plan to ban tobacco sales to people born after a specific year, known as  “tobacco-free generations.” 

What did the study look at?

The study looked at how banning tobacco sales for people born between 2006 and 2010 could affect lung cancer deaths. It included 185 countries and assessed the potential impact of a “tobacco-free generation” between different groups. 

Researchers used information from the World Health Organization’s Mortality Database, and other cancer registries, to help make a prediction for the future. They predicted one scenario where smoking trends continued as they currently are and a second scenario where tobacco sales were banned for people born between 2006 and 2010. 

They calculated the expected number of lung cancer deaths for people born between 2006–2010 in both scenarios.  

What did the results show?

The study found that banning tobacco sales and introducing a “tobacco-free generation” could significantly reduce lung cancer deaths: 

• Over 650 million people were included in the study. Of these, 2.9 million deaths from lung cancer were predicted to occur before 2095 without a “tobacco-free generation”. 

• If a “tobacco-free generation” was successful, there would be nearly 1.8 million less deaths from lung cancer. This would be less effective if “tobacco-free generations” were not fully applied, and some young people still had access to tobacco.  

• Sex, country, world region and income are all factors that would change the impact of a “tobacco-free generation.” 

• Men are more likely to benefit from having no access to tobacco than women. This could be because males usually take up smoking at a younger age and more often than women. 

• Stopping sales of tobacco would be more likely to benefit Asian and European men and European women. This might reflect the higher rates of deaths from tobacco smoking in these areas. 

Why is this important? 

Tobacco smoking is linked to deaths from lung cancer, especially in low-income countries. Low-income countries have reduced access to healthcare and a higher rate of smoking in young people. Measures such as a “tobacco-free” generation, where the uptake of smoking is reduced, could be effective at preventing deaths linked to tobacco. 

Findings from this article suggest that whilst the success of “tobacco-free generations” would vary between different groups, it is likely to benefit health worldwide. 

Read the full text here.

Learn how Lungs Europe, a partnership between ELF and the European Respiratory Society, and partners are working together to prevent the harmful effects of tobacco in the EU-funded FRESHAIR4LIFE project. 

The EU-funded SOLACE project, where Lungs Europe is also a partner, is supporting the roll out of lung cancer screening programmes in Europe. Find out more about how these programmes can help detect lung cancer at an earlier stage.